Tesla’s large EV truck, far on the road

「 semi 」 with a range of 500 miles is too expensive even with federal and state subsidies

― ― Investor Column 「 Hard on the Street 」

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　RiceTeslaIs it cool or efficient to buy an electric vehicle （ EV）？　The answer is important for the deployment of the company’s heavy trucks.

　Tesla’s latest vehicle is a Class 8 electric heavy truck. The passenger car market that we have been used to will compete in a completely different market. Truck buyers typically choose a vehicle according to a strict 「 total cost of ownership 」 calculation that combines vehicle price and running cost estimates. In a low profit margin logistics business, there is not much room for brands and aesthetics.

　Tesla should be aware of that, but still doesn’t stop advertising this heavy truck 「 cicadas 」 as if it were a consumer product. 「If you’re a truck driver and want the strongest truck on the road, this is it 」, said Eron Musk CEO （ CEO ） at an announcement event last week. The first detail on the semi’s performance on the company’s website is acceleration. This has traditionally not been a concern for corporate vehicle buyers.

　This apparent madness may also be under control. There is a shortage of truck drivers in the United States, and if you can appeal to an electric vehicle that is easy to drive, it may be useful for corporate recruitment activities. But even so, Tesla needs to consider the total cost of ownership. For heavy trucks that are heavy and require strength, it is difficult to ensure more profitability than a sedan given the inefficiency inherent in EVs.

　When announcing the cicada five years ago, the company announced that it would have $150,000 in a version with a range of 300 miles （ about 480 kilometers ） about 20.6 million yen （, 500 miles of version 180,000. Announced that it will be a dollar. At that time, the combustion engine’s Class 8 truck was about $120,000, but the low running cost would fill the difference. After that, Tesla hasn’t updated its price, but due to lack of parts under the new coronavirus epidemic, the company’s passenger cars and the average diesel truck are rising.

Since the price has not been updated, it is a valid way to focus on the cost of batteries for the main parts that are needed in addition to the EV to compare the technology of gasoline and EV vehicles. Tesla advertises a semi’s range of 500 miles, but Musk professed on Twitter two days that the battery consumed 1.7 kilowatt hours of electricity per mile. This means that the total requires 850 kilowatt hours of power. This year’s cost, including battery packs, is about $151 per kilowatt-hour, according to a battery price annual survey released by research firm Bloomberg NEF on the 6th. Calculated, the cost of a cicada battery would be well over $100,000.

　It’s an EV with a low running cost, but looking at this number also shows why the semi project was stagnant for a long time. Only in August when President Joe Biden’s inflation control law was nearing enactment, Musk announced that he would start shipping cicadas in December. Starting in January next year, companies will be able to apply for tax credits of up to $40,000 to equate the purchase price of medium and large EV trucks with the combustion engine formula.

Tesla in CaliforniaPepsiCoAlthough initially delivered to, the state has provided additional subsidies to trucking companies that purchase EVs. According to one truck maker, in addition to federal tax cuts, state-level incentives are likely to continue to be needed to reduce cost differences.

　Short-haul trucks may also be more acceptable than 500-mile trucks. Tesla’s cicadas will compete with rival vehicles that carry smaller batteries than usual. For example、VolvoThe latest type of flagship model 「 VNR Electric 」 boasts a range of 275 miles with a battery of 565 kilowatt hours. The 500-mile version of the semi, where Tesla ran from its location in Fremont, California to a PepsiCo bottling plant on the lakeside near San Diego, was a good publicity, but a 300-mile version or smaller. It will probably sell cheaper ones.

　Especially in Europe, Class 8 trucks are in high demand for shorter distances. Johann Larson, Head of Large EV Truck Business Development in Europe in Volvo, said 45% of all cargo transported on European roads is less than 300 kilometers （ about 186 miles ）. Point out.

　Although there are places where large EV trucks are active, there is a large subsidy currently required, so it is constrained by short-range demand. The cool element of Tesla will not carry the cicada so far.