On the other hand, many US managers have little experience in responding to inflation that has been held down for 40 years. This is the first challenge for the Fed. The Fed is strengthening its policy response, but it is difficult to control inflation with a makeshift measure. Moreover, the Fed has rarely practiced （ perfect landing ） regarding the management of money supply 「 funding 」.

　Still, I still have hope. There is a reason to be optimistic. The head of it is that the bad materials are almost out and may have already been woven into the stock market. More problems may arise in the future and the market may be cheaper. However, as a result of the 1987 stock price crash, IT （ Information Technology ） bubble collapse, global financial crisis, US bond downgrades, and a traumatic environment such as the low corona stock, we continued to invest patiently for 40 years. , I have seen some clear patterns. The bearish market has a common theme that can be a shopping signal rather than a warning.

　The first「 All worsen at once 」That’s what it is. There is a saying that only the correlation rises in the bearish phase. In that respect, the energy hindered by the Russian war of aggression is the only positive in this year’s S & P500 Species Index industry returns. Large and small stocks, on the other hand, are struggling as well as US and international stock indexes. Contrary to the general view that bond prices hold up in harsh environments, bonds are hit hard by rising interest rates. Believe it or not, 10-year US bond performance has been the worst in the last 234 years. As a result, the traditional asset allocation ratio of the retirement portfolio of 6% equity and 4% bond is that the hedge at the time of the price drop is almost non-functional. Perhaps the Claudius words that appear in Shakespeare’s 「 Hamlet 」 best describe it. 「Sadness comes in large numbers, not alone 」

　The second「 Everyone has the same opinion, but no one knows 」That’s what it is. Broad consensus must always be suspicious （ In the most recent example, there was no US midterm election 「 Red Wave （ Republican tenderness ） 」 ）. The 2020 US recession associated with Corona was widely expected in its own right, but no one expected it to end in just a few months. Generally, negative growth for the second consecutive quarter was considered as a resession （ recession ）, but much shorter than that. The most recent example of the United States’ substantial recession was 15 years ago, when the global financial crisis triggered. The period spanned 517 days and, due to its severity and length, it became known as 「 Great Resession （ Great Recession ） 」.

One of the entertainment has recently been to expect this about a recession on Wall Street ―― which may increase uncertainty and cause market flames. The Wall Street Journal （ WSJ ） is 「 90% of investors report 」, which the United States expects to enter recession by the end of 2023. While the market is excited to weave the worst scenarios, corporate management is preparing for an economic storm that doesn’t know if it will come or not.

　Let’s say it again. 「Everyone has the same opinion, but no one knows 」

　The third is「 Repel any bubble 」That’s what it is. Cryptographic assets （ virtual currency ） and special acquisition purpose companies （ SPAC ）, NFT （ non-alternative tokens ）, all of which are gross strains, as speculation was suppressed by changes in risk appetite. I’m getting hit. Securities that were always, and were boomingly overvalued and overbought were downgraded and prices were fixed by cruelty. The 2022 tournament of the US Professional Football NFL’s King Decision 「 Super Bowl 」 held in February was due to the high advertising of cryptographic exchange companies 「 Crypt Bowl 」 and ⁇ （ and Yui ）. This was the return of the IT bubble collapse of the 1990s. And now, as cryptographic assets-related stocks lose nearly two-thirds of their value, one of the Super Bowl’s big advertisers, cryptographic exchange FTX, applied for federal bankruptcy law and made a striking fall. I showed you.

Meanwhile, US IT giants lost a market capitalization of $3.4 trillion by the beginning of November. Sometimes a trillion-dollar market capitalization blew in just one week.FacebookMeta Platforms, which operates、Amazon dot com、Apple、Netflix、It may be said that the market has advanced 「FAANG」 as Google’s parent company alphabet has returned to the ground from a long stay in the stratosphere. I have always believed that inflation acts as gravity on the （ Hyojo ） grace of these markets.

　True, some of the gross stocks have great business, but their stock prices are almost perfect, and they are priced on the assumption that a low interest rate environment will last forever. 「 Eternity is a ridiculously long time 」, as sung by a legendary artist once called 「 Prince 」. Old Facebook stock （ Current meta strain ） plunged 26% in one day this February, with over $230 billion in market capitalization disappearing. This is now said to be the largest disappearance in the stock market in history. The market capitalization of meta-shares, which exceeded $1 trillion last year, is currently around $327 billion. Investors paid a great price for this plunge, but some sanity returned to the market.

　「 Wall Street is short-term oriented 」. It’s a bit difficult to understand, but market experts try to analyze daily or hourly stock price trends, but the tops of the companies admit they lack short-term outlook.

　The Zure between the perceptions of these investors and the reality of management reminds us that the stock price is far more volatile than the asset value that underpins it. Guessing tomorrow’s direction of stock prices is supported by many loud people, but it is more productive to focus on 5～10 years ahead, not 5～10 months ahead, and more profitable. It seems to be high. It has been said that market timing strategies are not in effect and that it is useless to predict economic phenomena, but market forecasts still inspire Wall Street’s imagination. This may enhance a hysterical reaction. These emotional reactions increase volatility （ variability ）, providing the greatest opportunity. For example, the worst period of the 2008 ～09 financial crisis, when concerns about the corona epidemic peaked in 2020, and the current macroeconomic turmoil. The current market storm is intensifying and weakening by the news of the day, but calm investors with the self-control needed to drown out noise and endure eye pain will make a huge profit in the long run. You can get it.

　further、「 Market bottoms 」. Of course, the US economy is always likely to enter the recession. Still, I think the authors are less likely to fall into a severe recession like the toughest 「 hard landing （ ）, ie 2007 」09. Gross US production （ GDP ） growth rate in the 7-September period was 2.6% annually. On the other hand, the state of the financial system has improved significantly compared to the past recession. Corporate and consumer balance sheets are strong, helping to control the economic slowdown. The unemployment rate remains near historic lows. There is a lot of money in the hands of US consumers. Household debt has the lowest GDP ratio in the last 20 years, with more than $1 trillion in savings from stimulus packages. The rise in commodity and service prices will be modest, but it will be difficult to think that wages will work together and fall, increasing consumer purchasing power.

　I think the best indicator of future stock returns is the price investors pay when buying a stock. This bearish phase is a great opportunity to buy good corporate stocks at low prices, as the stock price index’s share price rate （PER） is generally below the 25-year average. This is a good sign for value stocks. Value shares have outperformed Gross shares for any decade from 1926 to 2010, but this decade has been stalled by Gross shares, which prefer low interest rates. If the valuation stabilizes, patient investors will be rewarded and bullish again.