This poses a challenge to Mr. Powell, who will move to the next stage in managing interest rate policies. He faces two questions about how far interest rates will be raised towards inflation and how long they will maintain that level.

　Powell repeatedly emphasizes the idea that it is more risky to end poorly than to go too far in inflation control, but on the other hand, the Fed will try to balance it so that it does not cool the economy more than necessary. He also said.

　Powell has rapidly raised policy rates from near zero as the first step in exterminating inflation. The last four meetings have broken down a significant rate hike of 0.75 points. The last three meetings were unanimous decisions.

　Former senior economist at the Fed, Vincent Reinhart, said 「 a simple part of the rate hike was completed 」.

　The Fed is now in the second stage, fixing the trajectory to a slowdown in the rate hike pace. Powell said last month that the Federal Open Market Commission （FOMC ）, which will hold up to 14 days, is likely to decide to raise 0.50 points. If so, the federal fund （FF） interest rate guidance target is 4.25 ～4.5%, which is the highest level in 15 years.

　Then, the third step is to keep interest rates high until inflation has slowed towards the 2% target. Although specific interest rate levels are undecided, many Fed officials expect to reach this stage next spring or next summer.

　The effect of the rate hike on the real economy is said to appear by the time difference. In this case、City groupNathan Sheets, chief global economist, said that unemployment is rising within the Fed, and that the gap between opinions is likely to grow over appropriate interest rate levels.

　「 At that time, the conflict could be significantly deepened between the opinion of maintaining a tightening position and the opinion that the rate hike could be completed and turned into mitigation 」.

At issue is what will happen to inflation and wage pressure.

　Within the Fed, inflation is steadily slowing, divided into pigeons who want to keep the unemployed to a minimum, and hawks who do not decline painful measures towards inflation.

　It is the Hattian claim that the rise in inflation reflects the turmoil of unexpected events such as the new coronavirus and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. With these shocks softening, the sharp pitch rate hike has significantly slowed demand, forcing companies to compete for price cuts to secure sales. In addition, the price of durable goods such as the housing market and automobiles will decrease.

　Therefore, the pigeons say they need to be patient. We are in danger that the rate hike will exceed the levels needed to control inflation and cause a serious recession in the prank. At the last meeting, for this very reason, there was opposition to continuing the 0.75 point rate hike. It was divided from the agenda.

　The Fed’s entry this year and so fast-pitching rate hikes have made it a particular concern for the Hattians, as they have not had enough time to see their economic impact.

　Some pigeons also want to pay attention to the pain that the recession gives citizens. In an interview last month, Boston Fed Governor Susan Collins said he was concerned that the recession was almost inevitable. 「The price of unemployment is extremely high and we take that seriously 」